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Public confidence in the impartiality of government institutions and the transparency of its electoral process has diminished markedly in Nicaragua over recent years, reversing progress toward consolidation of Nicaraguan democracy. Many Nicaraguan analysts attribute the decline to the negative influence of the “Pacto” – a nearly decade-old power-sharing arrangement between President Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional, FSLN) and former President Arnoldo Alemán of the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (Partido Liberal Constitucionalista, PLC). Under the Pacto, electoral and judicial authorities are divided between the FSLN and the PLC on strict party lines, increasing the public perception that private and party ambitions rather than public interest guide their decisions.

Independent public opinion surveys conducted just after the 2006 election of President Daniel Ortega registered an increase in the level of satisfaction of Nicaraguans with the functioning of Nicaragua’s democratic institutions, reflecting general satisfaction with the integrity of the electoral process, regardless of the fact that President Ortega won with only 38 percent of the vote. However, the 2008 municipal election process, considered an important test for President Ortega, led to increased polarization and diminished confidence in the impartiality of electoral authorities. Nicaraguan election observation group Ethics and Transparency (Ética y Transparencia, ET) described the 2008 elections as “the least transparent and most conflictive elections since 1996.” Election authorities refused to provide domestic election observation groups, such as ET, credentials in order to observe these elections as they had done before. Major international observation groups invited to observe previous elections, like the Organization of American States and the European Union, were not invited to send observers. The elections were overshadowed by allegations of irregularities and fraud, which continue to affect support to Nicaragua by the international donor community.

The Supreme Court of Justice (Corte Suprema de Justicia, CSJ) dismissal of a 20-year jail sentence against Alemán has renewed speculation of secret negotiations between President Ortega and Alemán.  Some FSLN and PLC leaders have discussed moving forward with constitutional reforms to establish a mixed presidential-parliamentary system and to allow for consecutive presidential reelection. Nicaraguan civil society leaders have raised the need for other electoral and political reforms, including depoliticizing the electoral system, to help increase public confidence in advance of regional elections in 2010 and the 2011 presidential and legislative elections.

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