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YUDHOYONO/KALLA WIN BROAD SUPPORT,
NARROWER CONSTITUENCIES MATTER FOR OTHER MAJOR TICKETS Jakarta, 7 July 2004 Broad Support for Yudhoyono/Kalla The first-round frontrunners in Monday�s presidential election in Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Jusuf Kalla, garnered support from a broad cross-section of Indonesian society. From a partisan standpoint, SBY/Kalla both managed to retain 88% of the Democrat Party�s April voters as well as draw significant support from Indonesians who voted for the six other major parties in the legislative elections. For instance, 30% of Golkar�s voters, 28% each of PPP�s and PKB�s voters, 24% of PKS�s voters, 13% of PDI-P�s voters and 10% of PAN�s voters chose SBY/Kalla over their party�s ticket. SBY/Kalla was also the only ticket that garnered significant support from voters who affiliate with both of Indonesia�s major Muslim organizations: Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah. Thirty-two percent of NU voters and 21% of Muhammadiyah voters chose SBY/Kalla. Finally, this ticket also received the broadest cross-section of support from Indonesian voters of all educational levels. For the other four tickets, there was a clear pattern of support: Megawati Soekarnoputri/Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto/ Salahuddin Wahid and Hamzah Haz/Agum Gumelar all enjoyed greater levels of support among voters with lower levels of education, while Amien Rais/Siswono Yudo Husodo experienced the reverse pattern. Narrower Constituencies Matter for Other Major Tickets The voter attitude survey also indicated that vice-presidential choices and the support of parties other than those officially nominating a ticket had a significant impact on the outcome of Monday�s first round. For instance, when voters were asked whether they made their electoral choices based on the presidential or the vice-presidential candidates, a surprising 33% indicated that both candidates mattered � in addition to the approximately 50% of voters who focused solely on the presidential candidate. For example, in addition to Wiranto�s core voters from Golkar, the next largest vote bloc came from PKB voters, suggesting that his choice of running mate helped boost his support. In contrast, Hasyim Muzadi does not appear to have given Megawati a significant advantage with NU voters. The survey shows that while 49% of PKB voters chose Wiranto/Wahid, only 16% supported Megawati/Hasyim. In addition, while only one in five NU-affiliated voters chose Megawati/Hasyim, approximately two-thirds supported Wiranto/Wahid and SBY/Kalla in equal proportions. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) was the only one of the seven major parties not fielding a presidential or vice-presidential candidate. In the final days of campaigning, the party decided to endorse Amien/Siswono. The support of PKS voters boosted this ticket�s vote, as PKS voters were the second largest source of support after Amien�s own National Mandate Party (PAN). Methodology This survey was conducted with a total of 4,511 voters by LP3ES-NDI election monitors at 1,719 polling stations on election day by interviewing four randomly-selected voters per polling station. These polling stations were the same ones selected for a statistically-significant national sample for the Quick Count. Approximately 30% of the respondents refused to reveal their preference for a ticket in the presidential election; these respondents have been removed from this analysis. The margin of error for the results shown in the accompanying tables is plus or minus 1.5 percentage point at a 95% confidence level. For further information, please contact: Andy Agung Prihatna Researcher, LP3ES Phone: 021-5630233; 021-5674211 Mobile: 0811 89 33 40 Email: [email protected] For more data please visit: www.jurdil.org *********************************************** APPENDIX Table 1. Political Parties Supporters� Preference
Table 2. Political Parties Support to Presidential Candidates
Tabel 3. Affiliation with Islamic Organizations and the Presidential Candidates
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