With an unprecedented wave of voters mobilizing for a pro-democratic, western-oriented coalition of opposition parties, Poland’s parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023 unseated the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) after eight years in power. During PiS’s time in power, democratic institutions and the rule of law were eroded, and Warsaw’s relations with the European Union (EU) were tested. While a comfortable majority was won by the opposition coalition - comprised of the center-right Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the New Left - PiS, as the single party with the most seats, was initially given the first chance to form a government by President Andrzej Duda, who was elected with PiS’s endorsement. PiS used this as an opportunity to delay the formation of a new government for as long as permitted by constitutional procedure, which the opposition labeled as a “farce”, undercutting the will of the people who overwhelmingly voted for change. PiS failed to survive a parliamentary vote of confidence on December 11, and the new government was sworn in under new Prime Minister Donald Tusk in time to represent Poland at the European Union Summit, where aid decisions for Ukraine were made, among other deliberations. The new government faces broader challenges including restoring impartiality and independence to public media and the courts.

The consequences of these elections have a significant impact on the future of democracy in Poland and Europe at large, not least in Poland’s support for Ukraine within the EU and NATO. How Poland is able to address the refugees within its borders and ensure responsive government services for Polish citizens and Ukrainian refugees, presently estimated around 1.5 million, will be a key challenge of the new government to demonstrate that democracy can deliver.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, more than 17 million refugees have crossed the Polish border. Poland has generously welcomed its neighbors, despite the extraordinary burden placed on Poland’s larger cities – with some seeing an increase of 20 percent or more in their populations. Without a policy for relocation throughout the country or strategy for refugee integration, daily life for the average citizen in these cities has changed, with higher housing costs, longer wait times for healthcare, overcrowded schools, and more competition for jobs, among other concerns. As the war nears its two year mark, Poland has moved from supporting a crisis response into addressing longer-term needs, such as with housing, employment, and community integration, while local budgets are strained. 

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) has supported municipalities and civil society organizations in collaborating on inclusive, local governance responses with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). To this end, NDI conducted a series of qualitative focus groups and a quantitative survey with Polish and Ukrainian residents alike to explore attitudes towards the refugee population and the Ukrainian experience within Polish cities on municipal services; employment and housing; and community relations, priorities, and attitudes. The research, which took place in summer 2023, focused on seven of Poland’s larger cities -  Bialystok, Lodz, Lublin, Katowice, Krakow, Rzeszow, and Wroclaw - with insights to inform municipal governments on strategies for engaging citizens and responding to the challenges of an increased Ukrainian population in Polish cities. Key findings and NDI’s continuing analysis of the evolving situation are outlined below:

• Polish sentiment toward Ukrainian refugees has shifted in the past year. While affirmatively positive in general, growing ambivalence now marks Polish opinion in certain ways, with 40% of Poles reporting "having mixed feelings" toward the refugees. Their feelings are influenced by the complex images they have of refugees, as shaped by individual experiences and understanding of refugees’ rights and roles in their communities.

• Polish residents take pride in how their government and municipalities have extended support to refugees since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Approximately 60% of respondents were involved in at least one form of support offered to the refugees. They consider Ukranians to be similar to themselves; they generally experience positive social interactions when engaging with them; and many Ukranians learn Polish. Despite this, the two groups are not well integrated.  

• Poles widely believe refugees should benefit from public services and assistance, but there are specific services and state subsidies, which invite skepticism and even opposition. This particularly concerns unemployment benefits and the 500+ Family Subsidy, a tax-free subsidy paid monthly for every child under the age of 18, regardless of household income. While over 70% of respondents supported Ukrainian access to public education and healthcare, over 80% of respondents did not approve of access to these particular benefits. Negative perceptions towards refugees are driven by the perceived weight of their burden on the state, with almost a quarter of research respondents stating their opinions of refugees have deteriorated since the year prior. Since the research was completed, NDI perceives the heightened intensity of the parliamentary election campaigns and the growing polarization among supporters of different political parties as having further harmed relationships between Poles and Ukrainian refugee communities. Proposed limitations on refugee and military support garnered 7.2% of public support based on the parliamentary election results.  

• Within cities, relations between Ukrainian and Polish residents remain cordial, and Poles see the benefit of the presence of Ukrainian refugees, particularly citing economic reasons. One-third of Poles believe the influx of refugees will have a positive impact on their cities. Here too, there is a discernible contrast between cities: respondents from cities in the east, in which interaction with Belarusians and Ukranians has been more frequent, have a more positive attitude towards refugees. They were more often involved in providing support to refugees and consistently show a sense of pride in these efforts. Moreover, they also perceive greater benefits from hosting refugees in Poland and encounter less disinformation about refugees than cities in the west.

• Ukrainian refugees vary in their plans to remain in Poland. One-quarter intend to stay more than two years. As a whole, they express positive opinions about the cities where they reside, shaped by a sense of safety and a welcoming and helpful attitude of residents. They express overall satisfaction with healthcare benefits and current living arrangements (primarily privately rented apartments), in addition to education and responsiveness of government agencies.

With 37% of Ukranians unable to predict how long they will remain in Poland, and 25% planning to stay for more than two years, the Polish government – at national and city levels – will need to develop a national strategy for medium to long-term integration of refugees and dedicate more attention to relations between Polish and Ukrainian citizens. Community relations, however, may be better supported through concerted efforts by local governments to better accommodate the number of residents they must now serve. Local governments have faced a staggering loss of revenue (nearly USD 7 billion) due to tax reforms, high inflation and changes in personal income tax in the last several years, hindering their ability to meet the demands of the influx of refugees. Budget planning and long-term financial investments, particular in infrastructure projects like schools and transportation, have particularly been affected. Local governments will need support in prioritizing responses to citizen needs – which includes implementing strategic and inclusive communication strategies, participatory governance tools, and inclusive budgeting measures – all while drawing on a diverse and empowered civil society. 

NDI regional programming through NED, USAID, and DRL supports these lines of intervention. Addressing governance challenges at the national and municipal level is crucial to sustaining public support on the refugee situation; while aiding Poland to stand as a model against rising autocratic trends seen in the region.

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NDI is a non-profit, non-partisan, non-governmental organization that works in partnership around the world to strengthen and safeguard democratic institutions, processes, norms and values to secure a better quality of life for all. NDI envisions a world where democracy and freedom prevail, with dignity for all.