By Geneive Abdo
Middle East analyst, The Century Foundation

When the U.S. government included Iran in the “axis of evil,” it was easy for the Iranian regime to rally the masses in anti-America fury. But after 30 years of staged rallies in Tehran filled with “Death to America” chants, the conciliatory messages from President Barack Obama have taken Iran’s clerics and political elites aback. Even though the regime is adamantly anti-American, many Iranians are not. Candidates running for president are particularly stumped as to whether they should appeal to their constituents or the country’s leaders, such as Khamenei, who remains steadfast in his anti-American stance.

Considering the delicate nature of the U.S./Iran relationship, it is likely Iranians will see a role reversal as presidential campaigning gets underway. Khatami could very well be the one who will express caution in quickly accepting Obama’s gesture for dialogue and Ahmadinejad who seems more willing to extend an unclenched fist. Khatami will want to assure his conservative foes that he will approach any possible US-Iran dialogue only after consulting all factions. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, will want to send a signal to young voters and other moderates who oppose his candidacy that he will not obstruct US engagement on ideological grounds.

Ahmadinejad signaled as much on February 10th during a speech he gave at a huge rally in Tehran’s Freedom Square: “The new administration has announced that they would bring change and that they want to hold dialogue,” Ahmadinejad said. “The change must be fundamental and not a mere tactical move. The Iranian nation is ready to hold talks, but talks in a climate of fairness with mutual respect.”

Other more pragmatic conservatives however took a harder line. Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and former nuclear negotiator, dismissed Obama’s repeated pleasantries. He warned on February 2nd that the United States should not just shout slogans but untangle the knots of negotiations “by unfreezing Iranian assets and releasing Iranian prisoners held in Iraq.” He vigorously dismissed the notion that the issue of negotiations with the United States would influence the outcome of the Iranian presidential election – the very denial of which means that it could. Larijani, a pragmatic conservative, has shifted his tone from just two moths ago when he, along with his brother Mohammad Javad Larijani a long-time diplomat, said it was time for talks with the United States.

Some Iranian cynics inside and outside Iran are comparing Obama to Khatami, but for surprising reasons. Like Khatami when he was president, Obama might think he can ring in change, but the Washington political establishment could stop him, they say. One Iranian cartoonist, who rose to fame during Khatami’s presidency but who now lives in Canada, drew a cartoon that has become popular on blogs and other publications. It features Khatami and Obama. While a smiling Obama says “Yes we can,” a frustrated Khatami says, “No we can’t.”

« Read the rest of this issue of the Bulletin

–

Published on Feb. 25, 2009