By Masih Alinejad
During the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the fair distribution of wealth was the most eminent slogan that created hope in the hearts of many Iranians. Those who prior to the Revolution felt the division of poverty – and not the distribution of capital – in their lives, somehow not only managed to survive the hard times of the war era through the Islamic Republic’s economic policies, but also looked toward a brighter future. That hope faded slowly, however, leaving Iran behind other countries in the region and the world.
The Iran-Iraq war left much destruction behind. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s administration was named “the government of construction” to cure the sick economy for eight years and to build up a ruined country. Though Rafsanjani’s government had its shortcomings, the country slowly moved toward development. Other necessities beyond the economy emerged, namely reform and political expansion, bringing Mohammad Khatami and his “government of reform.” After the reformists, the Council of Guardians and other conservative institutions became concerned about a loss of revolutionary values. Consequently Iran’s military forces provided material and moral support to Ahmadinejad’s government to defend the Islamic Revolution, resulting in what has been called the “Islamic government.”
Following the “government of construction,” the “government of reform” and the “Islamic government,” Iranians today desire a government based on economic improvement. While economic slogans may have accompanied other campaign slogans in the past, “better economy” is now the main campaign promise. Both the reformists and the conservatives agree that the economy has come to a dead end, and they have no choice but to come up with a solution. Even the chairs of some of the most conservative parties admit that the economic policies of the government and the parliament have taken Iran to critical economic lows and the main focus, for now, has to be on providing people with basic necessities. The parliament, or Majlis, has warned the government about inflation, staggering prices, unemployment, drug addiction and corruption. The government, in turn, points the finger at the Majlis, blaming the parliament for these problems.
The economic crisis of the last few years has twice led 50 economists and academics to send a letter to Ahmadinejad’s government raising the alarm about the economy. They believe Iran is capable of more rapid growth, but that actual growth in 2005-2006 fell short of both global standards and Iran’s fourth expansion plan. Experts have warned that if the economy grows less than 2 percent in a five-year period, it would cost Iran one-third of its current gross production of about $70 billion.
During 2005 and 2006, $80 billion was injected into the Iranian economy, according to a report from Iran’s Central Bank. There is no doubt that natural resources need to be converted to physical capital, but the problem arises when, on the one hand, the income is wasted and, on the other hand, it disables the society from learning to handle economic challenges to achieve sustainable growth. Throwing oil money at the problems is the easiest way to address these challenges, but is not necessarily the wisest path. It postpones an otherwise inevitable recession, but is like prescribing painkillers for the sick economy instead of searching for a permanent cure. The patient, and with it the society, still suffers.
For example, marriage loans, employment loans, lowering of the interest rate, forgiving of debts to the bank system and other policies of the current government have slowed the economy and raised the inflation rate. According to members of the Majlis, the inflation rate for the 2009 budget is over 24 percent, and if current economic policies are executed without a course correction, the inflation rate will reach as high as 40 percent.
People expect the next president to promote a moderate policy toward the world that reduces the impact of sanctions, absorption of foreign investment and improvement in domestic production and industry. People also expect and hope for job creation, but the main concern remains the loss of jobs in the last few years. Many have taken their complaint to the street in demonstrations in front of government buildings or the Majlis, demanding job creation, job security and an expansion of social services. In addition, teachers, laborers, bus drivers and other workers want the next president to have the expertise to execute civil programs and create the proper atmosphere for private sector workers.
The lack of attention to the private sector has drawn dissatisfaction and protests from private companies and institutions. The damage has been so profound that senior officials of the Islamic Republic have been forced to intervene and pass amendments to the 44th article of the constitution, giving the private sector a bigger role in the economy. Unfortunately, the government has been slow to implement these measures. Presidential candidates are now trying to win votes by promising to privatize the economy and renouncing the ambivalence displayed by the previous administrations.
Poverty and inequality are the direct product of the current social, economic, political and cultural system and cannot be resolved by slogans alone. Ahmadinejad’s slogan that “oil money must be seen on the table of the people” not only did not result in a greater share of oil income, but the money used to buy food and bread and fruits also disappeared from Iranians’ tables. That is why Iranians want the presidential candidates to avoid empty slogans and replace them with solid plans for the economy. Maybe this time around the candidates will prevent false hopes based on unrealistic promises and solutions.
When victims of poverty and inequality buy into campaign promises and then become disappointed and disillusioned, the harm is irreparable. It won’t be easy any more to get them excited about a candidate. Today, Iranians, at the height of their disillusionment and discouragement, will be for the one who, instead of having a big mouth and using it to promise big things, has a realistic vision for the huge task of reforming the Iranian economic and social system.
Note: This article was translated from Farsi. The opinions expressed reflect those of the author, and not necessarily those of the National Democratic Institute or The Century Foundation.
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Published on April 9, 2009
