By Massih Alinejad

In the wake of June’s highly contested election, speculation in the streets of Iran was that a post-election fight was taking place within the regime between former president and chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  The infighting discouraged many from becoming involved for fear of being demolished by the powerful forces. The dynamics, however, have changed. A new round of internal tensions within the Islamic regime may determine the fate of Iran’s old guard.

During a speech following Friday prayers on June 19, Khamenei declared that his vision as the leader of the Islamic Republic was aligned more closely with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad than Rafsanjani. After this decisive announcement of support for Ahmadinejad, traditional supporters of the president and the Supreme Leader were re-energized.  High-ranking officials such as Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, the former speaker of the Iranian parliament, who were considered critics of Ahmadinejad up until the election, lined up in support of the president and his allies. Rafsanjani for his part became quiet, retreating into his respective corner and periodically making ambiguous statements.

To the public, the quarrel between Rafsanjani and Khamenei evolved into a larger conflict between conservatives in power and reformists on the sidelines. As the conflict called into question the legitimacy of the current government, the regime was discredited internationally and consequently applied more internal pressure on Iranian citizens. The number of detainees and casualties soared, the methods used to silence voices of dissent increased and threats were everywhere. Everyone feared detainment and illegal seizure. As a result, Iran has become a country of countervailing forces:  the people are not going to ease pressure on ruling conservatives and the government will continue to act forcefully against citizens.

While the massive crowds have subsided, one cannot tell from the relative calm what tomorrow will bring. Iran appears to be a raging fire hidden under ashes – all it takes is a breeze to set it ablaze.

Iranians need a calm period to re-energize. The challenges to the government have dropped slightly, and one cannot hear “Down with the Dictator” as much anymore, though Iranians still chant “Allah o akbar” (God is great) from their rooftops. Much like 30 years ago, they write slogans and draw graffiti on walls, hold secret meetings, and instead of distributing pamphlets at night, they communicate through emails, Facebook and Twitter – preparing for what comes next.

Meanwhile, reformist leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi invite people to show their dissent through civil protests and strikes and to pursue their case through legal means. Mousavi has expressed an interest in founding a political movement to lead and organize the grassroots movement.  However, in a similar pattern, following the 2005 election that was also plagued with allegations of fraud, Karoubi founded the Etemad-Melli party but quickly encountered opposition from the government.  Agents from the Ministry of Information shut down his TV station before it could begin broadcasting, and the goals and mandates of his party are still unknown and undefined.  Currently, the police, security forces and judiciary refuse Mousavi’s and Karroubi’s requests for permits for peaceful assemblies or to print their pamphlets, accusing their efforts of having roots in the West. 

Mousavi and Karoubi have consistently objected to government accusations that the reform and protest movement is somehow driven by the United States, Great Britain or other Western governments. In retort, they have asked the government to clarify the role of Iran’s northern neighbor and tell the nation how Russia has trained the Islamic Republic in how to violently crush protestors.

Iranians – who are bombarded by one-sided, heavily censored government controlled media – are concerned by a lack of information on Ahmdinejad’s foreign policy plans. Traditionally, when Iran faces a domestic crisis, the government chooses either to take an aggressive international posture or, in a clever move, begins to give countries lucrative contracts. Both sacrifice Iran’s national interests for the personal interests of a government that aims to silence and repress dissent.

The ruling government is concerned about public consensus, and is well aware that the masses could rise up again if the government makes another unwise step. In such an atmosphere, the government is only watching out for itself.  Foreign policy becomes a tool not to empower Iran on the world stage, but to stabilize the administration’s position.  Iranians are wondering if Ahmadinejad will open another round of aggressive language against the international community, putting the country in danger, or if he will try to paint a poor and miserable picture of Iran to gain the sympathy of countries like Russia.

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Published on July 17, 2009