By Geneive Abdo
Iran Analyst, The Century Foundation
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is fighting for his political life as never before. In early April, conservative heavyweights said they would decide among themselves who would compete against him for the presidency. He is at war with Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, a fellow conservative, pitting the executive office against the parliament – a rare occurrence in Iranian politics. And, the country’s chief economists are blaming Ahmadinejad for record high inflation and unemployment.
Known as an agenda-setter and independent-minded politician, Ahmadinejadhas crafted a new strategy to try to counteract all the criticism. While a shift in tack is not unusual given the volatile and unpredictable world of Iranian politics, it is surprising that Ahmadinejad has apparently decided to take his cues directly from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In early April, just after the Iranian New Year holiday ended, Ahmadinejad adopted a platform identical to the ideas proposed by Khamenei in a widely-publicized address given in the holy city of Mashhad on March 21. Now that Ahmadinejad’s fellow conservative leaders and the parliament have publicly come out against him, he needs to appear to be linked with Khamenei. In addition, the president wants to draw the support of the Supreme Leader, who has suggested lately that he remains undecided in whom to back for president in the June 12 poll. Ahmadinejad is justifiably worried that Khamenei might soon reach the conclusion that the president is too unpopular to be re-elected.
Ahmadinejad displayed his new campaign strategy in a speech on April 2 in Khuzestan, where he drew upon Khamenei’s own words to emphasize the need for justice and progress. “Progress in the absence of justice is not true progress from an Islamic point of view,” Khamenei had said in his wide-ranging March 21 speech. “If our GDP national wealth reaches a high point, but our people suffer from inequality and discrimination, or if there is a group of people who live in luxury while some others live in poverty, then this is not true progress from an Islamic point of view.” Ahmadinejad outlined three primary issues to address – bread, water and electricity – which also appeared explicitly in the Supreme Leader’s remarks. He also vowed to fight the status quo and adopt new economic policies, saying that “the correction for a new framework to stop waste and expenditures needs to be revolutionary and we won’t get there with the status quo practices.”
Ahmadinejad also went as far as to tone down his aggressive rhetoric, which has inspired severe criticism from leaders across the political spectrum who accuse the president of alienating Iran from the international community. While not mentioning the United States by name, the president said Iran favors “peaceful” and “rational dialogue” as the West moves toward exercising a new approach and tone with the Islamic Republic.
In addition to the influence Khamenei can wield over the Guardian Council, the body appointed by the Supreme Leader that will decide the final slate of presidential candidates, Ahmadinejad also needs the Leader’s endorsement to fend off his aggressive critics. On April 3, three prominent conservative politicians – Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Secretary of the Expediency Council Mohsen Rezai, and senior adviser to Khamenei Ali Akbar Velayati – announced they are considering running for president to ensure Ahmadinejad’s defeat. Since then, Ghalibaf has announced he will not run, possibly in favor of one of the other two men. The three conservatives say they favor a coalition government, which would include reformists and principlists (so named for their devotion to the principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution) as a way to unify the country. The idea, which Ahmadinejad’s supporters say is designed to “bypass” him, is gaining momentum.
The conservatives’ idea of a coalition government comes on the heels of a major political defeat for Ahmadinejad. In March, the president engaged in open warfare with parliament as a whole over its decision to amend the president’s $298 billion budget bill, and with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani in particular, who supports the idea of a coalition government to defeat Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad, whose political fortunes depend upon continued support from the underclass, proposed to raise energy and utility prices and compensate low-income families with direct cash payments. Parliament rejected his economic plan. In response, on March 14 the president sent a letter to Larijani accusing the parliament of violating Iran’s constitution. Larijani snapped back that Ahmadinejad was overstepping the authority of the presidency – itself a constitutional violation.
On March 18, the Guardian Council, which reviews and approves all laws based upon their adherence to Islamic principles, dealt a final, significant blow to Ahmadinejad when it approved the amended 2009-2010 budget. The decision demonstrated a degree of democracy in Iran, as checks and balances within the system prevailed, but it also showed the limits of Ahmadinejad’s power within the conservative-dominated parliament. Perhaps more importantly, three months before the election, it demonstrated to the president’s core political base that he may not be able to deliver for them in the future.
Ahmadinejad has been losing parliamentary support for some time now. In February, his increasingly isolated supporters felt forced to respond, and 40 members of parliament formed the Islamic Revolution Caucus with the stated objective of re-electing the president. The Caucus, however, represents a small portion of an estimated 200 conservatives in the parliament.
If these political setbacks were not enough, Iran’s leading economists have routinely criticized Ahmadinejad for the country’s economic crisis. His economic failings are a problem for him not only among political elites, but also among Iranian voters, who have been hard hit by the crisis. With the economy figuring as the primary election issue, the criticism has not been good for Ahmadinejad as he seeks re-election.
When Ahmadinejad first recommended a plan for cutting government subsidies of fuel, natural gas and electricity in exchange for distributing cash payments to low-income families, the former governor of Iran’s Central Bank told Tabnak newspaper that the plan would further increase inflation. Tahmasb Mazaheri said on March 7 that, despite cash distributions, those who would be most affected by the cuts would have no way of compensating for the price increases. Other economists said Ahmadinejad’s plan was flawed because it did not include decentralizing Iran’s economy, which is a necessary step to decrease unemployment and inflation. Of the estimated 3 million unemployed Iranians, 2.3 million in 2008 were under the age of 30.
Ahmadinejad’s critics accuse him of failing to develop the private sector and encouraging a centralized economy. Oil and gas exports dominate Iran’s economy, constituting 70 percent of government revenue and 80 percent of export earnings as of 2008. Iran has a large public sector, and the state directly controls and centrally plans an estimated 60 percent of the economy. When oil prices are high, Iran increases its purchases of imports and fails to encourage local production. Some economists have suggested using oil revenues to encourage investment in the private sector.
Despite Iran’s economic crisis, the other major candidates for president still have not offered their own specific economic programs. They discuss the failing economy, but only in general terms. Analysts inside Iran believe that the candidates and voters have only a superficial understanding of how the economy works.
As the presidential election draws near, the assaults on Ahmadinejad are likely to continue. His opponents hope that when the Guardian Council decides on the final slate of candidates in May, they will have discredited the president to such a degree that it will be apparent to the regime’s inner circle that his re-election is not in Iran’s best interest.
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Published on April 9, 2009
