• “Enemies of the Islamic Republic are contemplating a soft overthrown and are after installing a president who is closer to them and their goals.”
  – Secretary of the Council of Guardians Ayatollah Ahmad Janati in a speech in Bushehr, quoted in Rooz, March 29

  Ahmad Janati, in remarks that may indicate that the Guardian Council is prepared to support incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the presidential elections, stressed to members of the election administration that the June 12 polls would be used by those in Iran seeking a soft revolution. Janati, an outspoken supporter of Ahmadinejad, further told election staff that they would have a role in determining the outcome of the election. While he might have been referring to the duty of the election administration to ensure the validity of the results, his words are being analyzed closely given the alleged manipulation of past election results.

• “The government should answer an important question that people have, ‘What has become of the $270 billion the government has gained selling oil over the past three to four years?’”
  – presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi in the right-leaning newspaper Tabnak, April 3

  Following the announcement of former president Mohammad Khatami’s withdrawal from the presidential race and subsequent speculation that Mir-Hossein Mousavi is now the leading reformist candidate, Mousavi hit the campaign trail hard. While drawing upon his popular tenure as Prime Minister during the 1980s, Mousavi has sought to provide greater clarity regarding his policy positions after nearly two decades away from the political limelight. Building upon his economic credentials, he has spoken in support of greater transparency in economic policy, particularly the national budget, public tenders and oil deals. Contrasting himself with current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mousavi stated that he would focus on bringing diverse viewpoints into his cabinet and technocrats and management experts into his larger administration, rather than political cronies. He has called for a policy on freedom of information to insure that the government adheres to the constitution and current laws. In addition, Mousavi is positioning himself as the candidate who can bring managed change to Iran – appealing to his reformist base that want to see greater social and political freedoms, as well as to more conservative factions who fear losing control if reform happens too quickly.

• “Currently, the reformist groups are more inclined towards the candidacy of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and it seems that Mousavi is more hopeful than Karroubi to be selected as the reformist’s candidate in the upcoming election.”
  – Deputy Director of the Baran Foundation Hassan Rasouli quoted by Mehr News Agency, April 5

  As anticipated, many of former president Mohammad Khatami’s supporters have begun to shift their support to Mir-Hossein Mousavi after Khatami stepped out of the presidential race. The Khatami-led Baran Foundation appears poised to declare its support for Mousavi, and Mousavi has been holding meetings with Khatami supporters in an attempt to solidify an electoral base. However, the reformist faction is not uniform in backing Moussavi, and many organizations, including the Association of Combatant Clerics, remain undecided as to whether they will support Mousavi or his reformist rival Mehdi Karroubi. For many reformists, Mousavi’s attempts to bridge the reformist and moderate conservative camps fall short of the sweeping change they desire. They are particularly troubled by his references to adhering to the values of the Islamic revolution.

• “After examining the situation, at present, I am not a contender for the tenth presidential election.”
  – Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf quoted by Mehr News Agency, April 6

  On April 6, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who had been viewed as a leading contender among pragmatic conservatives, announced that he would not compete in the June 12 presidential elections. Ghalibaf appeared to be stepping aside for either Mohsen Rezai or Ali Akbar Velayati, fellow pragmatic conservatives who have supported the notion of a coalition government. Velayati, who is an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had previously stated that he would not run for president, leaving Rezai as the most likely candidate to lead the coalition. However, in a sign that political decisions in Iran are never final until the last moment, recent news reports posit that Ghalibaf withdrew his candidacy as an individual to open the door to standing as the candidate for a coalition government. There is clearly debate taking place within the pragmatic conservative faction over who would be best positioned to head an election campaign and how leadership within a coalition government might be divided. Whoever runs as the coalition candidate is expected to announce his cabinet during the campaign, which has leaders within the faction jockeying for position.

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Published on April 9, 2009