• “The (coalition) government should form ahead of the election. It would bring power and respect to the Iranian nation … Iran is a now a major power in the world. But we are not civil enough, so we lack political parties.”
  – Mohsen Rezai, quoted on the Farsi-language website Fararou, March 13

  Moderate conservatives fear their views will not be represented in a second Ahmadinejad term should the president win re-election. Mohsen Rezai, the former Revolutionary Guards commander, began floating the idea of creating a coalition government in March as a way to unite the conservative camp. Conservatives are currently split between Ahmadinejad’s hardliners and more pragmatic conservatives, such as Rezai. Rezai’s proposal highlights the tensions that political factions, without corresponding political parties, create in Iranian politics. The lack of political parties, which would nominate and run candidates, is causing friction among the conservatives and reformers, both of which have too many potential candidates vying for president.

• “Khatami’s withdrawal from the Presidential race will provide more opportunities for the principlists.”
  – conservative political activist Seyed Kamaladdin Sajjadi in the conservative newspaper Resalat, March 19

  Despite publicly stating that the reformists will be split in June, to the benefit of the conservatives, it appears that the conservatives may see Mir-Hossein Mousavi as the man to beat. Resalat, seizing upon the assumption that Mohammad Khatami is endorsing Mousavi, attacked Mousavi’s candidacy, calling into question whether he would actually bring “a better future” for Iran. Conservative spokespeople have also issued statements attacking Mousavi’s qualifications, and the conservative Kayhan newspaper questioned Mousavi’s allegiance to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The conservatives’ focus on Mousavi seems warranted given speculation within the reformists that Mousavi may emerge as the reformist candidate and that Mehdi Karroubi might withdraw, under pressure from reformists, at the last moment before the June election. Karroubi for his part has adamantly denied that he has any plans to step aside.

• “Khatami’s withdrawal from the presidential race has upset the West”
  – headline in the conservative Kayhan newspaper, March 19

  Further painting Mohammad Khatami as a creature of the West, Kayhan focused on the disappointment in the United States over Khatami’s withdrawal as a candidate, referencing articles in The Washington Post as evidence. While Khatami is now out of the race, conservatives may try to paint anyone he supports with the same brush of Western alignment. Many Iranians have expressed dismay at Khatami’s departure, but others in the reformist community have also said that he may have been a more attractive candidate to the West than he actually was to Iranian reformists. There remains a significant segment of reform-mined Iranians who are still disillusioned with how little he was able to accomplish, in comparison to his promises, during his presidential terms.

• “One of Khatami’s supporters from the group “Youth for Khatami” has said they had not asked Abdollah Nouri to accept a candidacy”
  – headline on Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s Ghalam weblog, March 19

  Earlier this week, rumors were floating that the National Organization of Khatami’s Youth Supporters was seeking to draft Abdollah Nouri, former Minister of Interior under both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, rather than giving their support to the two current reformist candidates. Nouri was convicted in November 1999 of speaking out against Ayatollah Khomenei and insulting Islam for his publication of and writings in the Khordad newspaper. He was freed from prison in 2002 after Mehdi Karroubi wrote a letter on his behalf to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei following the death of Nouri’s brother. Mousavi’s website refuted the claims that Khatami’s youth supporters were trying to draft Nouri. According to Ghalam, Nouri urged the youth to wait until the excitement of Khatami’s withdrawal had passed. He may be mulling over a presidential run, but is waiting to see how the reformists align in the wake of Khatami’s withdrawal.

• “Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s campaign has become proactive over the past two days – It seems that he seriously intends to enter the race”
  – headline on the left-leaning Jomhouriyyat website, March 20

  With the departure of Mohammad Khatami from the presidential race, Ghalibaf’s campaign team has increased its activity and an announcement of his candidacy is expected any day. Ghalibaf, who is the current mayor of Tehran and is among more moderate conservatives, may be able to attract many of the voters who had planned to support Khatami. Further, within the conservatives, he may be seen as a better alternative to the hard-line incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Moderate conservatives in the parliament have been engaged in a fierce confrontation with the president over his budget proposal, demonstrating that they are not in lock step with Ahmadinejad. Ghalibaf may be further emboldened by Supreme Leader Khamenei’s distancing of himself from President Ahmadinejad in his Nowrouz remarks.

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Published on March 27, 2009