By Gazelle Javantash

During a recent visit to Iran for the Nowrouz (Iranian new year) holiday, I had the opportunity to sit with family, students, workers and other average Iranians. While Nowrouz is not usually a time when politics becomes the center of conversation, this year was different. As I traveled across Iran, people were buzzing about the upcoming presidential election, the state of the economy and the shocking withdrawal of former president Mohammad Khatami from the presidential race just three days before the New Year holiday.

Students and young people felt that Khatami had been the main hope for Iranian youth. They were shocked that Khatami withdrew in favor of lesser known Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who since the end of his tenure as prime minister in 1989 has not been involved on the national political stage. The overwhelmingly young Iranian population – 75% of Iranians are under 30 years old – have no memory of Mousavi. Youth complained that Khatami should have stayed in the race just a bit longer to make sure that his message and platform were heard. Many remember the social freedoms and the reformist agenda that Khatami pursued during his presidency. One young woman said, “I have no idea who [Mousavi] is…we just don’t understand why Khatami left so early. His platform and point of view did not get heard by enough people so that it could have an impact on the general conversation around the election.”

Iranians I spoke with saw Khatami’s departure as a sign of politics as usual, that the veiled threats of assassination and the restrictions on his campaigning were a move by those in power who opposed his candidacy. Many doubted that Khatami would have won if he had stayed in the race. One gentleman agreed with Khatami’s withdrawal: “He did the right thing—they would have kept him from running in one way or another.”

Regardless of who is running, the economy remains the single most important issue for Iranians. Traditionally, foreign policy and ideology have differentiated presidential candidates. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, once famously said that the Iranian Revolution was not about “the price of melons.” However, the price of melons and other basic goods are exactly what are on Iranians’ minds as they head toward the June polls. Iranians fear that the economy, plagued with unemployment and inflation, is going to get much worse. They pointed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s announcement of “Year of Revision to the Pattern of Consumption” as the theme for the new Iranian year; the previous year had been the “Year of Innovation and Prosperity.” Khamenei spoke of a “waste of personal and public resources” and “unbridled consumption of the country’s resources” as ills to be addressed by the whole of society. Iranians have interpreted this to mean that their social welfare and services will be cut and they will have to learn to “conserve.” Currently, Iran regularly experiences rolling blackouts and water shortages; this summer is likely to be much worse because of a lack of rainfall during the fall and winter seasons.

While current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is highly unpopular among many upper-middle class Iranians not only because of his economic policies, but also because his fiery ideological rhetoric has reduced Iran’s standing in the international community, he still has a solid base of support among poorer and rural Iranians. During a rest stop in central Iran, a bus driver pointed to patrons wearing Basiji scarves at the next table and said, “When you ask who is supporting Ahmadinejad, don’t just consider North Tehran. Take a look at the people in the villages and towns, where he is bringing them free cooking oil and rice and other subsidies. They are not always seen, but their voices are heard in the election. These are the people who vote for him.”

No matter who is elected – reformist, pragmatic conservative or hard-line conservative – Iranians want security and economic prosperity for their families. As one bazaar merchant summed up, “All I want is for my future to be secure and not to worry from one day to the next if I can provide for my family. If one of these guys can do that, then I will vote for him. I hope that one of them can, but right now, I’m just not sure.”

The author is an Iranian-American who resides in New York. She recently led a delegation of graduate students from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs who spent two weeks traveling throughout Iran. The opinions expressed reflect those of the author, and not necessarily those of the National Democratic Institute or The Century Foundation.

–

Published on April 24, 2009