By Geneive Abdo
Middle East analyst, The Century Foundation
When former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi publicly pondered a run for president a few months ago, Iranians’ reactions were tempered. Some were skeptical the he would follow through, remembering that he had considered a run for the post in both 1997 and 2005, but never ultimately entered the race. Others thought Mousavi would present himself as a candidate only if his fellow reformers begged him to do so, which, given the candidacies of former president Mohammad Khatami and former speaker of parliament Mehdi Karroubi, seemed unlikely.
On March 10, Mousavi defied the skeptics by announcing that he is definitely running for president – even without pleas from reformist leaders.
During several interviews with the Farsi and English-language press, Mousavi explained his decision by hinting that, after four difficult years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a radical change is required. “In my opinion, today, more than ever, we should be concerned about social cohesion,” he said. “The same reasons and factors that made me avoid running in previous elections have convinced me that this time is different, and I need to run,” he said, without providing further details.
Mousavi’s candidacy may make it more difficult for the reformers to win. Their leading man, Mohammad Khatami, entered the race in February, and fellow reformer Mehdi Karroubi also is a contender. If the Guardian Council, the body that decides the final slate of candidates, authorizes all three to run, the reformers’ power base will be split.
This has been a long-standing fear within the reformist faction. Appearing divided in the eyes of the electorate will be a gift for their conservative rivals. In January, Khatami vowed to withdraw if Mousavi became a candidate. But after all the fanfare over Khatami’s campaign – especially in the West, where he is most popular – it will be difficult now for the former president to end his candidacy.
Mousavi offers different assets than Khatami. Although he is little known in the West, he is more popular than Khatami among traditionalists and hard-liners, who admire his performance as prime minister from 1981-1989 during the brutal Iran-Iraq war and who agree with his anti-Western and anti-American rhetoric.
The reformist faction is likely either to pressure one of the three candidates to withdraw or wait for the Guardian Council to decide the matter for them. In May, the Guardians will announce who will be allowed to stand in the June election.
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Published on March 12, 2009
