By Geneive Abdo
Middle East analyst, The Century Foundation

At the start of its new year, serious challenges face Iran. Inflation is running at 26 percent and unemployment is estimated at 30 percent. Iran’s dependence on its oil revenue is creating a crisis, as the price of oil plummets on the world market. New U.S. sanctions against Iran will likely cause more hardship. And the threat from Israel and the United States over Iran’s uranium enrichment program casts a thick cloud over the Islamic republic. Given the problems the government must confront, one might reasonably expect the presidential contenders to lay out detailed platforms to meet them. But the crucial race for president has so far been characterized more by form than substance. Rather than making specific policy recommendations or proposals, candidates speak in vague notions ranging from the need to unite the country to differences in the practice of Islam in the West versus the East.

Personalities, more so than policies, are driving public discussion. Among the reformists, Mehdi Karroubi, stealing a page from the American electoral handbook, is running on a platform for “change.” The former speaker of parliament advocates a radical shift from the presidency of hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whom even his fellow conservatives blame for damaging Iran’s international credibility and wrecking the national economy. However, in a pattern that is prevalent in the current election period, the specifics of what direction that shift would take are not forthcoming and his proposals sound anything but radical.  A speech Karroubi delivered during a campaign stop in Hamadan in early March is a case in point: “If I become president, I shall pick my cabinet members from the best, most experienced and smartest professionals. I shall make affordable housing practical for all middle-class people. I will stay away from micro-management and would let the best skilled managers take over the role of managing society … I shall remain faithful to the Imam (Ayatollah) Khomeini’s principles.”

Karroubi’s fellow challenger among the reformists, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, is equally difficult to pin down on his policy platform. The former prime minister has, despite flirtations with running for president in previous elections, largely stayed out of politics for the last two decades. As the blogger Persia wrote in his March 14th blog, “Mousavi is a real black box … Most people don’t know if he still maintains his leftist ideas of 1980s or not.” However, the electorate is forced to look to that record, particularly on managing the economy during the Iran-Iraq war, to gauge how he might approach the nation’s current policy challenges.

Of course, the most noted reformist personality – former president Mohammad Khatami – announced his withdrawal from the presidential race on March 15th, stepping aside to make way for Mousavi. Appearing in his trademark clerical robes, he said too many reformist candidates would split the vote, which would likely lead to defeat. “We reformists should do our best to prevent the party from dividing … Mr. Mousavi has announced his candidacy, though late. I had said clearly, ‘Me or Mousavi,’ and now I am doing as I said. We should remain as one, united.” Khatami’s presence, however, still looms large over the reformist camp, with some factions urging him to reconsider his candidacy and others calling upon Karroubi to follow his example and withdraw from the race in the name of reformist unity.

Across the political spectrum, Ahmadinejad is trying to cling to the status quo by cementing his power base among the religious and downtrodden. Posters of Ahmadinejad across the country show a photograph of him alongside pictures of Ayatollah Khomeini and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He is clearly positioning himself in line with the two religious leaders who are most associated with preserving the principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Slogans on the posters boast that his government provided financial plans for retirees, even though the government’s coffers are stretched.

If there is one issue the candidates are addressing in their campaign speeches, it is Iran’s economic crisis. This comes as no surprise to Iranian voters as the economy is virtually the only area in which an elected president does have significant influence – far more so than Iran’s nuclear program, its relations with the United States, or its role in Iraq, which are more in the hands of the non-elected figures running the state. In 2005, Ahmadinejad rose to national prominence for his promises to improve economic conditions for the underclass. Candidates in this year’s presidential election seem to have learned from his success, and reformists and conservatives alike are espousing populist rhetoric.

Karroubi, in addition to supporting affordable housing, has said he will offer shares in Iran’s state oil and gas industry to the public if he is elected. According to Etemad-e Melli newspaper, he intends to “put people in charge of the management, production and distribution of oil revenues and remove it from the government budget,” with the aim of decreasing the social gap and corruption in the extractive industries. Karroubi, during a speech in the northern Golestan province in early March, also called for better government data on inflation and unemployment to inform economic policies.

In keeping with his reputation as a straight-shooter, potential conservative candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran’s mayor, has focused on basic services for citizens and criticized the central government for failing to provide those for Tehran residents. He was quoted in an interview with Khorasan newspaper as saying that “the economic challenges we face in Iran … are increasing and the situation including Tehran municipality has worsened due to the lack of cooperation and the fact that (there are not) enough facilities, including buses and other means of public transportation.”

Reformist Mousavi, while failing to unveil a specific economic program, has made several references for the need to improve the economy, but in a way that remains true to Iran’s religious faith. “The way we plan on spending and also controlling our expenses should be along the path of reaching strategic goals. What is important is that these strategies be planned as Islamic strategies,” he said during a speech at the Hosseinieh mosque in Tehran. His ability to walk the line between reform and traditionalism has many Iranians viewing him as a potential third-way candidate who could pull from both reformists and more moderate conservatives. His economic credentials from managing Iran’s economy as prime minister during the Iran-Iraq war are also serving him in good stead. As Seyed-Hadi Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s brother, said in a rare expression of support for a candidate in an interview with Aftab-e Yazd, “Mr. Mousavi has great economic views and his economic policies were impeccable during the Iran-Iraq war, especially with regard to managing inflation.”

The candidates, however, so far are speaking only in generalities about the economy, and it is unlikely the candidates will make known their specific policies on that or any other issue before the Guardian Council announces on May 20th who will be allowed to run in the June 12th poll. The Guardians, comprised of six jurists and six clerics appointed by Khamenei, are watching the candidates’ moves closely. So for now, the prospective candidates are talking, while at the same time trying not to say too much.

Pictured above: From left to right, candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and a poster of candidate Mehdi Karroubi.

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Published on March 27, 2009