By Geneive Abdo
Middle East analyst, The Century Foundation
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s wide-ranging address in his hometown of Mashhad on March 21 attracted enormous attention around the globe. His remarks in response to U.S. President Barack Obama’s New Year’s message to the Iranian people seemed to indicate that Iran could be open to a friendlier relationship with the United States. Since Obama took office, it has become increasingly clear that talking with the United States, if not eventually normalizing relations, is the goal not only of Khamenei but other high-ranking Iranian leaders.
While the international community honed in on what the speech might portend for US-Iran relations, Iranian citizens listened just as closely to Khamenei’s messages on domestic politics and the economy. He urged the public to be more frugal during this time of economic crisis, but much like the presidential candidates did not respond to the larger economic issues facing Iran. More significantly, and much to the surprise of many Iranians and international Iran watchers, he distanced himself from what is commonly believed to be his solid support for the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the upcoming presidential election.
Reading from prepared notes – unusual for Khamenei who is known for his spontaneous, rhetorical speeches – he chose his words carefully, and he spoke directly to the June 12 election. Considering Khamenei’s public support for Ahmadinejad in 2005, when he first ran for office, it has been assumed that Ahmadinejad is his candidate in this election. But Khamenei tried in Mashhad to put such rumors to rest. “I will cast my own vote and will not advise anyone to vote for a particular candidate, because this is a matter of personal choice. I sometimes say things to defend or support the current administration (Ahmadinejad) and there are some people who misinterpret what I say. However, as a duty, I always support different administrations and those who render services to the people.” Only time will tell if he will indeed remain neutral.
Other parts of his speech sought to silence critics inside and outside Iran who question the legitimacy of elections in the Islamic republic. “Thirty elections have so far been held in the Islamic republic and according to the officials of the time, all those elections have been freely and accurately held,” said Khamenei, speaking before thousands of Iranians chanting, “God is great! Khamenei is the leader!”
The fact remains, however, that the Iranian polls could hardly be characterized as democratic. Presidential contenders who have nominated themselves in the upcoming presidential poll must be vetted by the Guardian Council. The Guardians, infamous for disqualifying candidates who might challenge the principles of the regime, will decide on May 20th the final slate of contenders. In addition to the Guardians’ influence before the polls are held, questions are often raised over whether the vote counting is accurate after elections. For years, political figures have accused the regime of rigging the polls to ensure the victory of certain candidates.
Addressing Iran’s beleaguered economy, which is figuring as the primary campaign issue for the elections, Khamenei appeared to misplace blame. The economy is hurt by the country’s dependence on its oil revenues and the plummeting price of oil on the world market. And new policies under Ahmadinejad have also contributed to the current economic downturn. The president has emptied the state’s coffers to redistribute wealth and help the poor, but the result is a surge in inflation, now estimated at 26 percent.
Khamaenei, however, sidestepped these major causes underlying the country’s economic woes. Instead, he focused on a more minor cause by calling upon Iranians to conserve energy to help the economy. “We should admit that wrong consumption habits and methods have resulted in excessive consumption, and the average amount of energy used in the country is twice the current amounts in the world,” he said. “The proportion of the energy used for production to the amount of products that are produced is eight times the amount used by developed countries.”
Pictured above: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
–
Published on March 27, 2009
