Ukrainian Support for NATO and Demand for Inclusive Democracy Reach Record Highs

On February 24, 2022, the world watched as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, with the aim of toppling Ukraine’s government and erasing from the map a democratic nation whose very existence Vladimir Putin has denied. More than a year later, Ukraine remains steadfast in the face of unrelenting violence and terror. The National Democratic Institute (NDI) conducted nationwide polling in May 2022, August 2022, January 2023, and most recently in May 2023 to assess Ukrainian public opinion on a range of topics related to the war, the geopolitical climate and Ukrainians’ hopes for the future. The comparison of the polling over the past year reveals a portrait of Ukrainian resilience that is both inspiring and sobering.

The price of war, resilience and the fight for democratic values is at record levels.

The number of Ukrainians reporting that they have lost a friend or family member has more than doubled, from 20 percent in May 2022 to 47 percent in May 2023. And yet despite continuing to pay this enormous price, Ukrainians remain remarkably resilient and optimistic towards their future and an eventual Ukrainian victory. The percentage of people who are either “very optimistic” or “more optimistic than pessimistic” about Ukraine’s future remained almost constant from May 2022 to May 2023 at 87 percent. When asked to choose one word that makes them optimistic, respondents most often said “victory.” 

But how long will this eventual victory take? In May 2022, only 18 percent believed that the war would last over six months.¹ In May 2023, 47 percent believed that the war would last at least six months or more. And what does “victory” mean to Ukrainians? Ninety-two percent of Ukrainians report “reclaiming the territory it controlled prior to 2014, including all of Donbas and Crimea” as an acceptable price for peace.

Ukrainians trust their president and their army, but desire to go beyond a strong military to build a strong and inclusive democracy.

Ninety five percent of Ukrainians report trusting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 80 percent report trusting President Zelenskyy. And while much of the international media’s attention has focused on Ukraine’s requests for additional weapons and equipment from its partners, Ukrainians do not just want a strong military – they want a strong and inclusive democracy. In May 2023, 94 percent of Ukrainians reported that it is important that Ukraine becomes a fully functioning democracy, with no statistically significant difference across regions (West, Center/North, South, and East). NDI has been asking this question for a number of years and has never seen a figure this high. By comparison, when asked the same question in December 2021, only 76 percent of Ukrainians said that it was “important” or “very important” that Ukraine become a fully functioning democracy.

Ukrainians desire for democracy is not superficial or convenient but rather rooted in real understanding and commitment. They were able to name widely accepted attributes of a “fully functioning democracy, such as “equal justice for all”, which was chosen by 64 percent. This genuine belief in democratic values is also reflected in the increasing majorities of Ukrainians that believe that LGBTQI+ people should have the same rights as others. Sixty-five percent reported that they agreed with that statement in May 2023 compared with 58 percent in January 2023.

Support for joining NATO and the EU is at an all-time high.

Ukrainians are clear that the country needs its allies’ help to emerge from this horrific war in order to become a stronger, more inclusive and vibrant democracy. In May 2023, 92 percent reported that they want Ukraine to become a member state of the European Union (EU), and 89 percent reported that they want to become a member of NATO – steady increases from one year ago. In addition, seventy-three percent of Ukrainians said that international organizations, Western countries or international businesses should play a major role in overseeing Ukraine’s reconstruction process. 

Trust in the government and its efforts to fight corruption remains high.

Trust in the government’s role also remains relatively high with 80 percent agreeing that the government will deploy funding for reconstruction in the regions that need it the most, and a majority saying that the government will involve different political parties, prevent corruption and use funding for reconstruction effectively. In NDI’s poll about 32% said they trust their government, represented by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, to fight corruption. 64 percent report trusting journalists to contribute to the fight against corruption, a level of trust not vested in any other sector. This demonstrates that the spirit of the Revolution of Dignity, along with its demands for reforms, transparency and accountability remain alive and well even during the wartime context. 

Ukrainians are paying an unimaginable price to fight for their victory and for their democratic future. International partners should be prepared to do their part to support Ukraine in a manner aligned with public opinion: by supporting not only its military, but its ongoing reform processes, by empowering local civil society and independent media in their roles, and by assisting with an inclusive recovery and reconstruction effort in the post-war environment.