Ethnic identity and related political grievances pre-dominated at the ballot box on October 2, as before, but other political voices broke through. While final, certified results in some of the races are pending, NDI staff in Sarajevo and Banja Luka below go through the outcomes and offer key take-aways of what the elections signal for the democratization agenda in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

Results

The members of the tripartite BiH Presidency will be incumbent Željko Komšić joined by newcomers Denis Bečirović and Željka Cvijanović. Becirovic and his Social Democratic Party (SDP) took on and defeated Bakir Izetbegovic of the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) for the Bosniak seat. Cvijanovic replaces her Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) party leader, Milorad Dodik, in the Serb seat and becomes the first woman to hold a presidential post. Komsic held his seat against a challenge from Bojana Kristo of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ BiH).

The presidential races showcased a fundamental distinction in Bosnian politics between ethnically-oriented nationalism and civic-oriented politics. And while the presidency arguably will have one ethno-nationalism politician in Cvijanovic and two civic-minded leaders in Komsic and Becirovic–despite the fact that the presidency is defined along ethnic lines–the votes for the state and two entity parliaments show the proportion in reverse. 

The ethnonational Bosniak, Croat, and Serb parties together won a majority of seats in the BiH Parliamentary Assembly and are expected to form the executive Council of Ministers. At the Federation (FBiH) entity level, national parties had significant results, with SDA and HDZ BiH leading in the number of votes. SDP has the third highest number of votes at the FBiH entity level. The most significant progress was made by People and Justice (NiP), a party which will, for the first time, have MPs at the state level and significantly more MPs at the FBiH and cantonal levels. At the Republika Srpska (RS) entity level, the distribution of seats in the National Assembly seems to remain the same from the previous mandate with SNSD keeping the highest proportion of seats, followed by SDS and the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP).

The rise of right-wing parties, together with the results of prominent ethno-national parties in the FBiH and RS parliamentary assemblies, indicates the direction in which BiH is heading unless center and center-left parties manage to find more appropriate communication channels with the voters.

Voters are restless. 

Even though this was a 'base' election in which voter turnout was relatively sparse at just above 50%, according to the Central Election Commission, public sentiment in and around this election was restless. People are looking for change, shopping for options, but stuck in what they see as viable options. NDI polling conducted in December 2021 showed that there is a significant appetite among the residents of the RS for change, which is also seen in the post-election protests occurring in the RS. The protests, organized by the RS opposition dissatisfied with the extensive election fraud organized by Dodik's supporters, were also a sign of the citizens' aspiration for change. The opposition was not able to garner enough support from the electorate despite speaking directly to peace, stability, and economic development prioritized by citizens. The exception to this is Bečirović winning against Izetbegović for the Bosniak member of the BiH Presidency by 20 percentage points.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine re-awakened collective and individual trauma from the 1990s. 

Russia's war against Ukraine contributed to the overall reawakening of sentiments from the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, impacting the preparation for the campaign and the campaign itself. Milorad Dodik, Candidate for RS President (SNSD), visited Vladimir Putin. This led to a rise in nationalistic rhetoric utilized by many candidates of ethno-nationalistic parties. This is in contrast to NDI pre-election opinion research that found voters prefer candidates who focus on policy-driven campaigns. Political elites from a wide spectrum of political ideologies used the Ukraine-Russia war to keep on citizens' apathy and their sentiment of threat, cultivated for years, to prevent them from focusing on citizens’ concerns such as economic development, the environment, and other “everyday”issues. Instead, citizens voted again for those who are the most responsible for the constant aggravation of BiH.

The democratic integrity of the election process itself needs work. 

The atmosphere across the RS is becoming more intensified in the post-election period. While both the PDP and SNSD candidates announced their respective victories on election night with accusations of election fraud overshadowing the elections as a day for celebrating democracy. The opposition are making vocal accusations of electoral fraud and do not recognize the preliminary results, claiming fraud. Although a request to recount votes started in several cities, like Doboj, Prijedor, Celinac, and Zvornik, the opposition is now asking for a full recount, including for the RSNA seats, as well as considering a push for repeated elections for the RS President race. 

New info is coming minute after minute and spotlighting the electoral process that already suffers from a lack of public trust. While Coalition Pod Lupom reported that the election day generally passed in line with Election Law, the Central Election Commission (CEC) accepted numerous requests to investigate potential fraud, including cases where two bundles of marked ballots were brought to a polling station, resulting in arrests; numerous reports of voters’ pressure; the denial of access to opposition election observers; fake medical certificates for assisted voting; ballot bags without seals; and lost polling stations registry books.

Dodik and his partners are already counting the number of mandates they have in each of the BiH and RS parliaments as the opposition calls for recount and repeated elections while also holding protests to garner further support for these steps. The CEC continuously updates preliminary results clearly indicating strong dominance of SNSD, but it is also considering investigations into reported fraud. One needs to wait for the final results to be fully disclosed. It might take time, but it is in the best interest for Bosnia’s democratic future to have a process that instills security and trust, no matter how long it takes. 

The international community is making its presence felt. 

On the night of elections, High Representative Christian Schmidt used his authority to pass laws to strengthen peace and efficiency of institutions in the country, or Bonn power, to impose a set of measures to “improve Federation Functionality.” This decision imposes a set of constitutional amendments, the most important being: 

• FBiH House of Peoples will consist of 80 delegates, 23 from each constituent people (17 so far) and 11 from among the Others (seven so far); 
• Delegates to the House of People will be elected by Cantonal Assemblies in proportion to the ethnic structure, providing that at least one Serb, one Croat, one Bosniak and one delegate from among the Others is elected from each canton; 
• Cantonal Assemblies will have a deadline of 30 days to elect their delegates, starting from the day when they receive their certificate.
• Each House (Representative and Peoples) will be expected to reject or approve certain legislation within 45 days after the other House has adopted it. 

As an important segment in these amendments, HR Schmidt included citizens’ participation in the work of the parliament, which will be regulated through Rules of Procedure. In practical terms, this means that citizens will be enabled to initiate adoption of the laws in the parliament. 

The exact impact of this decision will be visible in the coming days once the cantonal assemblies are constituted and the House of Peoples members are elected.